Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 2.323406 2.724576 3.169852 3.700107 4.313741 5.000916 5.828190
2025-11-09 1.575492 2.074503 2.690419 3.503799 4.546796 5.836209 7.547842
2025-11-16 1.170821 1.699574 2.412774 3.438852 4.869996 6.786980 9.539604
2025-11-23 0.914782 1.444177 2.214591 3.406583 5.191012 7.746582 11.662827
2025-11-30 0.780396 1.324913 2.170923 3.563918 5.778385 9.133876 14.564137
2025-12-07 0.651907 1.182875 2.058480 3.583739 6.143064 10.221589 17.149798
2025-12-14 0.547779 1.057013 1.944161 3.571371 6.439468 11.223525 19.713243
2025-12-21 0.468613 0.957551 1.853800 3.577845 6.756910 12.285241 22.493200
2025-12-28 0.440996 0.947958 1.919868 3.869194 7.608144 14.349841 27.233806
2026-01-04 0.393091 0.888451 1.881072 3.955318 8.090176 15.813284 31.073711
2026-01-11 0.354965 0.841359 1.857612 4.064830 8.626507 17.431812 35.379165
2026-01-18 0.313921 0.779701 1.793568 4.080176 8.974731 18.728454 39.213747
2026-01-25 0.265905 0.693990 1.666975 3.950086 9.020092 19.464864 42.095967
2026-02-01 0.220574 0.605337 1.518895 3.749755 8.889499 19.834964 44.297662
2026-02-08 0.190932 0.549381 1.436066 3.683534 9.042081 20.809937 47.875492
2026-02-15 0.167533 0.504588 1.371889 3.650184 9.262923 21.955029 51.951112
2026-02-22 0.157238 0.493357 1.389229 3.818566 9.979502 24.276062 58.883448
2026-03-01 0.141385 0.462791 1.351097 3.839876 10.341810 25.833105 64.258898
2026-03-08 0.126134 0.430595 1.302856 3.826726 10.615770 27.215135 69.384116
2026-03-15 0.113522 0.403692 1.264434 3.833657 10.941600 28.757283 75.061556
2026-03-22 0.112276 0.413085 1.331557 4.144686 12.110176 32.487670 86.454171
2026-03-29 0.104068 0.397524 1.322471 4.236613 12.700125 34.839690 94.682907
2026-04-05 0.097302 0.385425 1.321850 4.353490 13.375261 37.484143 103.934812